Just two months ago, Connie Mack and Bill Nelson were deadlocked in what seemed to be one of the closest Senate races in the country. But two months have come to pass, and Nelson finds himself nine points ahead. What happened? How did Nelson pull ahead so quickly, and what could have caused this miraculous jump in support? Have voters just soured with Connie Mack, or have Democrats rebounded nationwide?
Well, I spent time going through two sets of polls from Public Policy Polling to get to the bottom of this quandary, and my findings were interesting to say the least. Aside from the obvious, which is that independents have gravitated towards Nelson, one other group has jumped ship: women. We've all known for awhile that the ever-widening gender gap has become a growing problem for the GOP, but in just two months, a four point deficit with women has increased by five fold, leaving Connie Mack a staggering twenty points behind with half his constituents.
So what could have caused such a disastrous collapse? How could an entire set of voters abandon a candidate in such a short period of time? Better yet, what drove them to "jump ship"? Well, at first glance, one might say an unpopular Rick Scott is the cause, but if that were the case, then why didn't they support Nelson when they were polled back in July? Would they not then have disliked Gov. Scott and the Republicans just as much as they do now?
I contend that the problem is much more complicated than any instate issue. In fact, I think the real root of the problem is not instate at all. With news spread so quickly in today's day and age, the problem that caused this Republican collapse must have been out of state, which leads me to believe that the comments of one man are responsible. That man is Todd Akin. His controversial comments about abortion back in August have been a lightning rod for women all around the country, and Florida is no exception.
But even this seems to be a bit of a stretch. How could one man, let alone a measly Senate candidate from Missouri, have affected the outcome of an entire election on the other end of the country? Aren't Americans politically apathetic people who care little for the intricacies of Washington? Could one thirty second comment have had such an effect?
There's no simple answer to any of these questions, but regardless of how insignificant Todd Akin's statements may seem, there's little doubt that many women, pro-choice and pro-life alike, found them abhorrent and offensive. Contrary to what Akin believes, women in fact don't have ways of "shutting the whole thing down" when they are being forcibly raped against their own will, and it's precisely this controversial rhetoric that was so off putting for so many. Voting Republican in their eyes would be associating themselves with the old wives tales and Calvinist extremism that Akin espouses, and the thought of even lending any tiny ounce of support to anyone who's name is tainted by very same 'R' that Akin finds next to his own name makes them cringe.
And it's because of this fear of association that women have jumped the Republican ship. They did so first with Mitt Romney and now they've gone overboard again with Connie Mack. If the Republican Party can't get some lifeboats in the water fast and throw some of its rowdy sailors drunk on Tea Party extremism overboard right after, it might find itself on the ocean floor sooner than we think.
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