Romney Path to Victory still elusive despite surge

Can Mitt Romney win this November? Does he have enough momentum to overcome Barack Obama? Will he emerge victorious on election day? While some Republicans are hopeful that their robotic candidate will come out on on top, the polls say otherwise. Despite a huge surge in support that has seen Romney rise above his opponent nationally, the former Massachusetts Governor is indeed still behind in the electoral college column.

So what will it take for him to pull ahead of Barack Obama? After all, the election is less than a month away and Mr. Romney has very little time to push himself over the victory line.

Well, to begin, he needs to shore up his support in tossup states (pictured in grey) that will most likely go Republican. Some of them like North Carolina have more socially conservative electorates while others are full of cosmopolitan suburbanites who care little for social issues. Appealing to both camps will be key to ensure that these states go red in 2012.

Next, he must do everything in his power to win over Granite State voters in New Hampshire and seniors in Florida. While both electorates are vastly different, they are truly up for grabs and could be decisive come November. Colorado and Virginia certainly fall under this "pure tossup" category as well and will no doubt be part of any Republican victory.

Finally, Mr. Romney must go on the offensive in tossup states where he finds himself consistently behind in the polls. Some like Nevada will take only a little push while others like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania seem a little more out of reach.

But most importantly, Mr. Romney must win Ohio, and with polls showing him consistently two to three points behind his opponent, eking out a victory will certainly take some work. But victory in the Buckeye state will be essential to victory nationwide. After all, no presidential candidate in the past fifty years has prevailed without winning Ohio. Furthermore, without Ohio, Mr. Romney's path to the White House will be even more limited than it already is. Suffice to say, any presidential victory will require the state of Ohio.

But to put Ohio in the Republican column, Mr. Romney will have to extend his support beyond his Cincinnati suburbanite bastion in the west and must concentrate his efforts on other parts of the state, most importantly the working class areas in the north and east. Convincing these voters that the Republican ticket represents their interests will be difficult, but they are equally disgusted with Mr. Obama and his college professor elitism. Thus, with efficacy and favorability for both candidates low, turnout in these areas will be key to any success.

So with only a month to go until polls open, Mr. Romney should remember the old saying, "As Ohio goes, so goes the rest of the nation".